American Civil War II

This Is An Idiot Plot

There's a lot going on and I wanted to share my take. The following info is from The Associated Press with my thoughts below that.

From The A.P.

U.S. Northern Command said it is sending ​700 Marines into the Los Angeles​ area to protect federal property and personnel, including federal immigration agents. The 2nd Battalion, 7th Marines are coming from Twentynine Palms, California, and will augment about 4,100 National Guard members already in LA or authorized to be deployed there to respond to the protests.

On Monday, Trump posted a warning on social media to those ​demonstrating in Los Angeles​ against his immigration crackdown and confronting police and members of the National Guard he had deployed: “IF THEY SPIT, WE WILL HIT, and I promise you they will be hit harder than they have ever been hit before. Such disrespect will not be tolerated!”

The response to these protests is ironic, given the fact that in one of his first acts of his second term as president, Trump ​pardoned hundreds of people​ who attacked the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, to try to keep him in office, including those who beat police officers.

My take:

These protests are largely peaceful and not widespread. There are images of burning cars or rocks being hurled that get pushed to the top of the newsfeed — but by and large, we're talking about peaceful citizens who are concerned about ICE raids in their community. This is not a widespread riot by any means. You can see the map here showing how relatively minor this is. ​CBS has more info here.​

For context, more property damage was done in 2020 when the ​Lakers won the NBA Championship​. Perspective is everything.

The decision by President Trump to send in thousands of troops is not just an intentional overreaction. It's stoking the fires, which is clearly what he wants. Escalating chaos is a classic move that creates a spectacle for the express purpose of justifying the use of force. This is straight from the strongman playbook.

And let's talk about what all this is costing us...

This debacle is costing us $100MM+ in taxpayer dollars for a nothing burger dick measuring contest. Add to that the fact that he’s having ​a military parade on Saturday​ in honor of his birthday, that will cost the taxpayers another $25-$45 MILLION. $16M of that is allocated to patch up the roads after the tanks destroy them. I thought we were going for government efficiency?

How very Kim Jong Un of him. And not very efficient.

Meanwhile...Medicaid is on the chopping block? Make it make sense. IMO, this is what authoritarian looks like. Quite literally.

Circling back on the immigration issues and the supposed rounding up of "criminals" for a minute — let's talk about what that actually means: ICE isn't just looking for criminals, but also ​rounding up citizens and legal residents at places of work.​ Did you know that being undocumented in the US is not a criminal offense — it's a civil infraction. Therefore, by definition, you're not a criminal if you're here illegally. Seems that 99% of MAGA doesn’t understand that caveat.

Conversely: Donald J. Trump is actually ​a convicted felon​. He's also been found liable of ​sexual assault​ — the only reason it was not defined as r*pe is because New York law narrowly defines that as only occurring with the penetration of vagina by the penis. He used "a curved finger.

"Carroll testified that she struggled to get Trump off her as he shoved his mouth on hers, yanked her tights down, and penetrated her with his hand and then his penis. She described him curving his finger inside her, saying it was "extremely painful" and "a horrible feeling."

Sorry to get graphic there, but many people don't know (or choose not to know) the man they voted for.

But hey, we can let those "personality quirks" slide...at least with DJT in office, we'll all make more money. Right? Hate to break it to all those who voted for him to "improve the economy" -- things are the same or worse. They were bad under Biden, for sure — and they're worse now. The Economist has been tracking the last 4 Presidential cycles closely.

​Here's what's been happening in the stock market​ since he took office:

Not flattering for a guy who prides himself on business acumen. Then again, ​he has declared bankruptcy 6 times​. Maybe we'll get to be his 7th!

Look, I know the economy is complex and that everything is interconnected. I'm aware that one presidency affects the next. However, Trump ran on the platform of fixing the economy, and he's doing the exact opposite for the average citizen. That being said, it is a great opportunity for billionaires to buy stocks at an all time low and eat up more of our country's wealth. And what a lucky stroke, Trump has tapped ​more than a DOZEN of them​ to run the highest offices in the land. All together, the billionaires in administration are worth at least $450 billion – higher than the GDP of 175 countries.

However, for the Americans who are just trying to buy basic household necessities, his policies are wreaking havoc. Above all, one thing absolutely nobody wants to see is the Commander-in-Chief enriching himself to the tune of billions of dollars in meme coins and $400MM private jets from countries and individuals who want to curry favor while the rest of the country struggles to buy eggs.

All the entrepreneurs who voted for him are eerily silent on my timeline now.

Interesting.

(Re: the meme coins and the jets, I'm getting tired and don't feel like linking them. Look it up.)

With all the chaos, it’s tempting to say things like, “The US has been through turbulence before, we’ll be fine” — and cite the assassinations of the 60’s, etc. But those comparisons lack all the context of today - economically, globally and personally in Trump. There are patterns at play that do not bode well for the country — and it's not just just me thinking this. Ray Dalio agrees.

Or maybe it's I who agrees with Ray, lol.

Dalio thinks we are experiencing the classic signs of an impeding civil war. The following excerpt is from his 2021 book:

“That brings me to my next principle: When in doubt, get out—if you don’t want to be in a civil war or a war, you should get out while the getting is good.

The biggest risk to democracies is that they produce such fragmented and antagonistic decision making that they can be ineffective, which leads to bad results, which leads to revolutions led by populist autocrats who represent large segments of the population who want to have a strong, capable leader get control of the chaos and make the country work well for them.

Also noteworthy: history has shown that during times of great conflict federalist democracies (like the US) typically have conflicts between the states and the central government over their relative powers. That would be a marker to look out for that hasn’t yet arisen much in the US; it’s happening would signify the continued progression toward Stage Six.”

A more complete version of this excerpt ​can be found here.​

I, for one, pray that he's wrong. He's been wrong before.

But patterns are hard to ignore.

I'm waiting for a Deus Ex Machina moment — but so far, this is reading more like an idiot plot.*

---

That's it for today. I don't have any wise takeaway or a CTA.

I just wanted you to know what I'm thinking and where I stand.

Gotta get back to work.

D

PS: please comment with your thoughts if you have time.

PPS: an idiot plot is one which is "kept in motion solely by virtue of the fact that everybody involved is an idiot" and where the story would quickly end, or possibly not even happen, if this were not the case.

---